empty
21.03.2025 10:20 AM
US stock market getting ready for zero hour

The Federal Reserve has done all it can to calm the markets, but in 2025, the spotlight has shifted away from the central bank.

The S&P 500 has brushed off strong housing data and jobless claims, instead focusing on the brewing constitutional crisis stirred up by Donald Trump's defiance of court rulings, as well as his new tariff threats. Trump has declared April 2nd the "day of America's liberation," clearly hinting at a potential rollout of reciprocal import tariffs.

Trade Policy Uncertainty Index on the Rise

This image is no longer relevant

According to Morgan Stanley, the S&P 500 is unlikely to revisit historic highs before the second half of 2025. Any rallies, especially those led by low-quality stocks, will likely be short-lived, as uncertainty clouds the outlook for economic and corporate growth.

In the latter half of the year, anything is possible, as investors shift focus to 2026. Even if markets can't count on Donald Trump, they still have the Federal Reserve. Amid slowing GDP growth, the central bank may eventually throw a lifeline to equities.

Investor Sentiment at Historical Lows

This image is no longer relevant

A recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey shows that bearish sentiment has outweighed bullish sentiment for four weeks straight, a record in the history of the survey. Investor sentiment reflects deep uncertainty. While there is hope for stabilization, that doesn't mean the S&P 500 will shoot up without efforts. Instead, the market is likely to experience choppy, erratic moves, reflecting the underlying climate of uncertainty.

Markets are now preparing for the zero hour when $4.5 trillion worth of derivatives is set to expire in the third week of March. The rebalancing of positions could bring about heightened volatility.

Last December, the VIX (fear index) surged following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which cut its 2025 rate cut projections down to just two. Even though most expiring contracts may not directly affect the S&P 500, volatility spikes—similar to a rollercoaster—remain a real risk.

This image is no longer relevant

Fears may intensify as April approaches, with the White House expected to implement reciprocal tariffs. The EU has already backpedaled, pushing back tariffs on US whiskey imports from early spring to mid-spring. Their stated goal is to buy time for talks with Washington and avoid economic pain on both sides. But it's unlikely that Donald Trump will be deterred—and markets agree.

Technical Outlook: S&P 500 at a Key Pivot

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is currently battling around the critical pivot level of 5,670, forming an inside bar pattern. A breakout above 5,710 could serve as a signal for short-term buying, potentially followed by a reversal. Conversely, a successful break below support at 5,633 may trigger a new wave of selling.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Los mercados atrapados en un círculo vicioso sin salida por ahora (posible caída del Bitcoin y del precio del oro)

Los mercados están en estado de confusión debido a la enorme cantidad de noticias negativas que se ciernen sobre ellos sin un final claro a la vista. En este contexto

Pati Gani 11:13 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 17 de marzo. El mercado se ha dormido, la economía no le interesa a nadie.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el viernes "murió" definitivamente. En la ilustración a continuación se puede ver claramente que la volatilidad fue bastante alta en los primeros tres días

Paolo Greco 07:03 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 17 de marzo. Ni rastro de corrección.

El par de divisas EUR/USD no logró continuar el débil movimiento a la baja del miércoles y jueves durante la jornada del viernes. Por lo tanto, una corrección contra

Paolo Greco 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

El Bitcoin huye de la criptocapital del mundo

Donald Trump prometió hacer de América la criptocapital del mundo, pero ¿quién necesita una capital de la que todos huyen? Las peores liquidaciones de empresas tecnológicas desde 2022 entristecieron

Marek Petkovich 12:02 2025-03-11 UTC+2

WTI – West Texas Intermediate. La recuperación de los precios del petróleo está limitada

Hoy, el petróleo ha intentado recuperarse desde los niveles más bajos observados desde septiembre de 2024. Sin embargo, la recuperación no puede considerarse positiva en el corto plazo. Los inversores

Irina Yanina 10:55 2025-03-11 UTC+2

Las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio están estancadas

Según informes de los medios, las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio y otros asuntos se han estancado en niveles bajos, ya que ambas partes no logran entenderse

Jakub Novak 07:59 2025-03-11 UTC+2

El gas sigue subiendo rápidamente de precio

Las cotizaciones del gas se han consolidado de manera firme por encima del nivel de $4, y en este momento no hay razones para el regreso del mercado bajista

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:07 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 10 de marzo. La libra esterlina sigue subiendo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista el viernes. El paquete estadístico estadounidense no fue lo suficientemente fuerte, lo que completó el cuadro general del desastre del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:29 2025-03-10 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.