empty
14.01.2025 01:42 PM
GBP/USD. January 14th. Two Inflations: What Should the Pound Expect?

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline for half of Monday but then reversed in favor of the pound, rising to the 1.2191 level. Today, consolidation below this level will once again favor the US dollar, resuming the decline toward the 323.6% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.2036. If quotes remain above the 1.2191 level, further growth toward the 261.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2303 cannot be ruled out.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure raises no questions. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous wave's peak, while the current downward wave has broken the previous low. Thus, a "bearish" trend is clearly forming, with no signs of its conclusion. To end the trend, the pound would need to rise to at least the 1.2569 level and confidently close above it. Such a development seems unlikely in the near future.

On Monday, there was no significant news, and today traders are likely to focus only on the US Producer Price Index (PPI). However, the market is primarily awaiting tomorrow's inflation reports from both the UK and the US, which are the most critical releases of the week. These reports could either halt the dollar's growth or further fuel it.

Inflation dynamics are currently straightforward. US inflation is rising, as anticipated by traders and the Federal Reserve. The stronger the inflation increase for December, the higher the likelihood of renewed dollar growth, as the FOMC could reduce its planned monetary policy easing in 2025 to one or even zero rate cuts. Conversely, weaker-than-expected inflation could weaken the dollar. The same logic applies to UK inflation. These reports will be released six hours apart tomorrow, meaning the pair's movements may shift directions at different times. By the end of the day, we should have clarity on whether the dollar can continue its growth trajectory.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.2565, consolidated below the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2299, and continues its descent toward the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1993. The downward trend channel indicates bearish dominance, which they are unlikely to relinquish soon. Only a close above the channel would signal a potential strong recovery for the pound. A developing "bearish" divergence on the CCI indicator warns of a possible resumption of the decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders showed little change in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,644, while short positions grew by 132. Bulls still hold an advantage, but it is visibly shrinking. The gap between long and short positions is now only 21,000: 86,000 versus 65,000.

In my view, the pound retains downward potential, and COT reports indicate strengthening bearish positions almost every week. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has decreased from 160,000 to 86,000, while short positions have increased from 52,000 to 65,000. I believe professional players will continue reducing long positions or increasing shorts over time, as all possible factors supporting the pound have already played out. Technical analysis also supports the pound's decline.

Economic Calendar for the US and UK:

  • US – Producer Price Index (PPI) (13:30 UTC).

Tuesday's economic calendar contains only one minor event. The impact of the information background on trader sentiment today will be minimal.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

  • Sales: Selling opportunities were present following a rebound from the 1.2569 level on the hourly chart. Sales were also viable after closing below the 1.2488–1.2508 zone and the 1.2303 level. Today, sales are possible upon closing below the 1.2191 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2036.
  • Purchases: I do not plan to consider buying opportunities today.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • Hourly chart: Built between 1.3000 and 1.3432.

4-hour chart: Built between 1.2299 and 1.3432.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana del 16 al 21 de diciembre, del par de divisas GBP/USD.

La semana pasada, el par, moviéndose hacia abajo, rompió el nivel de retroceso del 14,6% – 1,2624 (línea de puntos azul), cerrando la vela semanal en 1,2618. Durante la próxima

Stefan Doll 09:17 2024-12-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. 10 de diciembre. Los toros agotaron su potencial.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el lunes realizó un rebote desde el nivel de corrección del 323,6% – 1,0532, una ligera subida y un regreso al nivel 1,0532

Samir Klishi 11:31 2024-12-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD. 10 de diciembre. La libra está estancada y esperando la inflación estadounidense

Buenos días, estimados traders. En el marco temporal de una hora, el par GBP/USD el lunes volvió a la zona de resistencia 1,2788–1,2801, rebotó desde ella, giró a favor

Samir Klishi 11:31 2024-12-10 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el par EUR/USD del 24 de junio de 2024

EUR/USD La caída del euro del viernes no fue grande, pero sí cualitativa: los índices bursátiles, las materias primas y los metales preciosos bajaron junto con él. El par EUR/USD

Laurie Bailey 09:00 2024-06-24 UTC+2

Pronóstico del par GBP/USD para el 24 de junio de 2024

GBP/USD La libra esterlina bajó 13 pips el viernes. Se detuvo en la línea Kruzenshtern de la escala diaria. Esta mañana el precio se está consolidando en esta línea, probablemente

Laurie Bailey 08:53 2024-06-24 UTC+2

Pronóstico del par USD/JPY para el 24 de junio de 2024

USD/JPY El viernes, el dólar repitió el carácter impulsivo de la subida del jueves, saltando 86 pips. El nivel objetivo de 160,40 ya está cerca, y supera el máximo

Laurie Bailey 08:40 2024-06-24 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana, del 20 al 25 de mayo, par de divisas GBP/USD

La semana pasada el par subió, rompió el nivel de retroceso del 23,6%, 1,2690 (línea de puntos azul) y subió, cerrando la vela semanal en 1,2697. En la próxima semana

Stefan Doll 10:32 2024-05-20 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana, del 20 al 25 de mayo, par de divisas EUR/USD

La semana pasada, el par se movió al alza, probó el nivel de retroceso del 76,4%, 1,0891 (línea de puntos roja), bajó un poco y cerró la vela semanal

Stefan Doll 10:32 2024-05-20 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.