Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD

The test of 1.3010 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero mark. Within the framework of the British pound's downtrend, it confirmed the correct entry point for a sell position. As a result, the GBP/USD pair dropped by 30 pips. News about inflation decline, alongside the news of a drop in the unemployment rate in the UK, pushed the pound down, as this gives the Bank of England room to proceed with active rate cuts. There are no major UK statistics in the first half of the day, so a large correction of the instrument is unlikely. The movement will likely be driven by the ECB policy decision. If the euro falls significantly, the British pound may follow suit. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the entry point around 1.2992 (the green line on the chart) with a target at 1.3016 (the thicker green line on the chart). Then, I intend to exit the buy positions around 1.3016 and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips downward from the level. A strong rally in GBP/USD will hardly happen today. Important! Before buying, please check that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the British pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2978 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. GBP/USD is expected to rise towards the opposite levels of 1.2992 and 1.3016.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound sterling today after the 1.2978 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the instrument. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2950 level, where I intend to exit the sell positions and open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips upward from the level. Sell positions will be relevant on the condition of the bearish market continuation. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Another option is to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2992 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. I reckon a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.2978 and 1.2950.

Chart Notes:

• The thin green line is the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator is important to use the overbought and oversold zones for market entry.

Important: Beginner traders on Forex should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are generally ineffective for intraday traders.