Trade Analysis and Advice for the Euro

The first test of the 1.0759 price occurred when the MACD was significantly above zero. Within the euro's bearish trend, this limited the pair's growth potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying. The second test of 1.0759 occurred when MACD was in the overbought zone, enabling the second selling scenario. However, the pair did not experience a significant decline.

In the second half of the day, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data is unlikely to have a significant impact, as it only reflects the previous week. Of greater importance will be the FOMC decision on the key interest rate and accompanying statement, with expectations for a 0.25% rate cut. Jerome Powell's press conference could also drive market volatility. A dovish stance may renew pressure on the U.S. dollar, while a hawkish tone would likely continue the dollar's rise. For intraday trading, focus will remain on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Today, buying the euro is possible at the 1.0778 price level (green line on the chart), targeting 1.0830. At 1.0830, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro, aiming for a 30-35 point movement in the opposite direction. Substantial euro growth is likely only if the Fed adopts a dovish stance.Important: Ensure MACD is above zero and just starting to rise before buying.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.0742 twice while MACD is in the oversold zone. This scenario limits the pair's downward potential and may lead to a reversal upward. Growth can then be expected to resistance levels of 1.0778 and 1.0830.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: Selling the euro is possible after the 1.0742 level (red line on the chart) is reached. The target is 1.0685, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction for a 20-25 point upward correction. Selling pressure on the pair may return if the Fed signals a cautious approach toward further rate cuts.Important: Ensure MACD is below zero and just starting to decline before selling.

Chart Elements

• Thin green line: Suggested buy entry point.
• Thick green line: Target for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Suggested sell entry point.
• Thick red line: Target for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further declines below this level are unlikely.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders:Beginner traders should exercise caution when entering the market. It is often safer to avoid trading during major fundamental reports to prevent sharp price swings. If trading during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, your entire deposit may be at risk, especially if you do not practice proper money management or trade with large volumes.

Successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the example outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.