empty
04.04.2025 05:34 AM
EUR/USD Forecast for April 4, 2025

On Thursday, investors flight from risk, and the dollar reached its peak: the S&P 500 dropped by 4.84%, the dollar index by 1.64%, oil by 6.90%, gold by 1.00%, copper by 4.38%, and bitcoin by 3.85%. It's worth noting that these instruments have reached their technical targets and now appear visually ready for a correction. So, could the panic be over? Even the peak of the Brexit panic in June 2016 lasted just two days, excluding weekends; the pound lost 16.5 figures in two sessions, rebounded by three figures over the next two days, followed by a prolonged, wide-ranging consolidation until the end of August.

The approaching crisis does not seem to frighten the U.S. government. There is a remarkable word in the perestroika vocabulary that Trump, given his age, surely knows. The essence of the current "rebalancing of distortions" lies in economic revitalization. The last time we saw a process like this was during the historic 2008 crisis, when the market purged itself of the default swap pyramid and other "parasites on the body of capitalism," simultaneously boosting the real economy.

Trump's version of revitalization began with a large-scale reorganization of budgetary institutions, which had grown during the pandemic. One hundred fifty thousand employees across various agencies have been or will be laid off. The February Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a gain of 150,000 compared to 125,000 in January, and the forecast for March (to be published today) is 137,000 — also a solid figure. However, the key indicator of the current labor market situation is the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits, and this figure, published yesterday, is at 1.903 million — the same level as in February of last year. Nothing alarming has occurred — those laid off are finding new employment. We expect optimistic U.S. labor market data release today and a general correction across markets.

This image is no longer relevant

Our target range of 1.1110–1.1150 on the daily chart has been met. A correction toward 1.0955 is possible, and if the market still has an appetite for further growth (a breakout above 1.1150), the next target could be 1.1276. We need technical confirmation that the market is cooling off, and today's data could significantly influence this.

It is also worth noting that over the past three days, the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds has declined from 3.91% to 3.70% (a level last seen in September 2024), a factor supporting the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

The price has begun consolidating within the range of 1.1027–1.1110 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is exiting overbought territory. We await the data release and the euro's reaction.

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise but pulled back in the second half of the day. The decline (i.e., dollar strengthening) was short-lived

Samir Klishi 12:28 2025-04-14 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 14, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Friday and today is on track to reach the 1.3151 level. A bounce from this level will favor

Samir Klishi 12:25 2025-04-14 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Crude Oil Commodity Instrument, Monday April 24, 2025.

On the 4-hour chart of the Crude Oil commodity instrument, the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern and Bullish Pattern 123 and Divergence between the #CL price movement and the Stochastic

Arief Makmur 07:19 2025-04-14 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Palladium vs USD Commodity Instrument, Monday April 24, 2025.

With the appearance of Divergence from the Stochastic Oscillator indicator with the XPD/USD price movement on its 4-hour chart and the appearance of a Bullish 123 pattern followed

Arief Makmur 07:19 2025-04-14 UTC+2

#SPX – Summary and Outlook

Last week, even though there was a bearish gap, bullish players were able to reclaim their ground effectively. The market is now approaching the point where it may eliminate

Evangelos Poulakis 00:58 2025-04-14 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 11-15, 2025: sell below 1.1470 (+2/8 Murray - overbought)

During the European session, the euro reached a new high around +2/8 Murray, located at 1.1473. This movement in EUR/USD occurred after the announcement by China's Ministry of Finance that

Dimitrios Zappas 16:44 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 11-13, 2025: sell below $3,235 (+1/8 Murray - overbought)

Early in the American session, gold is undergoing a strong technical correction after reaching a new high around 3,237.69 for now. Economic data from the United States will be released

Dimitrios Zappas 16:04 2025-04-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD – April 11th. The Dollar's Decline Shows No Sign of Stopping

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair spent the entire day in an upward move, gaining 400 points and approaching the 261.8% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1318. A rebound from this level

Samir Klishi 12:36 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 11, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday and secured a position above the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3003 – by Friday morning. This suggests

Samir Klishi 12:32 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Forex forecast 11/04/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SP500, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 09:52 2025-04-11 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.