empty
30.01.2025 12:36 PM
BTC/USD Analysis – January 30. Powell Triggers a New Bitcoin Rally

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD appears completely clear. After a long and complex a-b-c-d-e corrective structure, which developed between March 14 and August 5, a new impulsive wave began to form, already taking on a five-wave structure. Judging by the size of the first wave, the fifth wave may be shortened. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, wave 4 took a three-wave form, confirming the accuracy of the current wave count. Since the fifth wave is now forming, it makes sense to look for buying opportunities. However, as I mentioned earlier, this wave may complete very soon—or may have already ended.

The news backdrop has supported Bitcoin's rise, fueled by continuous institutional investment inflows, purchases from governments of certain countries, and pension funds. However, Trump's policies could drive investors out of the market, and no trend remains bullish indefinitely.

BTC/USD gained $3,500 on Wednesday and added another $1,800 on Thursday. The catalyst for Bitcoin's latest rally was the Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting, but in my opinion, the market simply found another excuse to buy Bitcoin.

It wasn't the entire crypto market driving these gains—it was major players leading the move.

The FOMC meeting results were neutral, as Jerome Powell did not change his stance on interest rates. He emphasized that:

  • Donald Trump will not influence Fed policy.
  • The Fed is waiting for Trump's economic actions to assess their impact on inflation and key economic indicators, which determine rate decisions.
  • Inflation remains above the target level, which delays monetary easing.

If interest rates decline quickly, or even start to decline, the yield on bank deposits and U.S. Treasuries drops.This makes Bitcoin attractive, as low Fed rates encourage capital inflows into risk assets.

Bitcoin has been in demand for the past two years, ever since the Fed managed to lower inflation and the market began anticipating policy easing.

However, even though rate cuts have already begun, Bitcoin and the stock market continue rising. In my view, a bubble is forming in the crypto market—just like in stocks.

There was no fundamental reason to buy BTC yesterday or today.Yet, the market is aggressively buying.

The potential wave 2 within wave 5 is unclear and unconvincing.I still cannot confirm that wave 5 will take a full five-wave structure.

This image is no longer relevant

Overall Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that Bitcoin's rally is nearing its end. This may not be a popular opinion, but the fifth wave may be shortened. What comes next? A crash or a complex correction. Thus, I do not recommend buying Bitcoin at this stage. If wave 5 begins forming an extended five-wave structure, then a strong corrective wave 2 must be visible within it.

At the moment, wave 2 is present on the chart, but it does not look convincing. I believe that at least one more decline is coming. On a higher time frame, the five-wave bullish structure is clear. It is likely that a corrective bearish structure or a downward trend phase will soon begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear – Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to unexpected market shifts.
  2. If the market situation is unclear, it's better to stay out – Avoid forced trades in uncertain conditions.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in price direction – Always use Stop Loss orders to protect capital.

Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of technical analysis and trading strategies to increase accuracy.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin and Ethereum lose ground, but nothing to worry about

Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped yesterday during a North American session, but most of the decline had been recovered by the time of today's Asian session. While the market is currently

Jakub Novak 09:45 2025-02-19 UTC+2

BTC/USD Analysis – February 19th: Calm Persists in the Cryptocurrency Market

The 4-hour wave structure of BTC/USD appears clear and well-defined. Following a prolonged and complex corrective a-b-c-d-e wave, which formed between March 14 and August 5, Bitcoin initiated

Chin Zhao 09:44 2025-02-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on February 19

Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a significant decline yesterday, each losing around 3.5%. Bitcoin found strong buying interest around the $93,000 level, while Ethereum dropped to the key support zone

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:37 2025-02-19 UTC+2

Trading tips on crypto market on February 18 (North American session)

Bitcoin demonstrated a fairly strong move on the breakout of the $95,600 level, which I mentioned in my morning forecast, leading to a decline toward the $95,000 area. However

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:56 2025-02-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on February 18

Bitcoin is currently under pressure and has returned to the $95,000 range. Ethereum attempted to rise yesterday, with strong buying activity; however, it failed to hold at the $2,800 mark

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:13 2025-02-18 UTC+2

Bitcoin and Ethereum Remain Under Pressure

Ethereum has made attempts, but Bitcoin has decided it's had enough. The longer Bitcoin (BTC) remains below the $100,000 mark, the greater the likelihood of a decline toward the $90,000

Jakub Novak 08:13 2025-02-18 UTC+2

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin to trade at $500,000 or even $5 mln in long term.

According to Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Bitcoin is on its way to replacing gold as the primary store of value. He predicts that in the near future

Irina Yanina 10:51 2025-02-17 UTC+2

Wave analysis of BTC on February 17. Crypto market like calm sea

The wave count on the 4-hour chart for the BTC/USD pair looks entirely clear. After a long and complex corrective structure a-b-c-d-e, which was formed from March 14 to August

Chin Zhao 09:42 2025-02-17 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on February 17

Bitcoin and Ethereum demonstrated minimal movement over the past weekend, highlighting the lack of market activity during this time. This trend reinforces their increasing correlation with stock markets and major

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:01 2025-02-17 UTC+2

Bitcoin and Ethereum Continue to Struggle

Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently facing a challenging situation. The ongoing lack of interest from traders and investors over the past weekend, combined with a significant capital outflow from spot

Jakub Novak 07:41 2025-02-17 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.