Forex Analysis & Reviews: 02.05.2019 - Hard times await Lira....

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02.05.2019 11:11 AM

Hard times await Lira. Turkey will not be able to solve problems with currency

Investors are still in the dark about what is happening with the foreign currency assets of Turkey. The published report of the Central Bank of Turkey on inflation showed what exactly is happening with the monetary policy of the country and how quickly foreign exchange reserves are reduced. But even after its publication, the situation remains obscure. Lira recovered slightly after the head of the Central Bank announced that another round of raising interest rates is possible if it is necessary to stop inflation. But if this is a real opportunity, then why was it excluded from the monthly report of the Monetary Policy Committee? This frightened the currency markets because investors' confidence in Turkey has eroded and although the regulator has done its best to calm the market, this cannot be considered good news.

In addition, the head of the Central Bank was unable to clarify the situation with foreign exchange reserves. Recognizing the "need for further action on reserves," he was unable to voice any of these "follow-up actions" either in the press briefing or in the report. In any case, even the figures voiced by the head of the Central Bank of 80 billion dollars for foreign currency reserves and a net amount of 27 billion dollars are not insufficient to cover Turkey's short-term foreign currency debt of 120 billion dollars. This is a serious problem for the current government. One rhetoric does not support the lyre. Investors must believe that the Central Bank is sincerely committed to its fight against inflation and independent of government intervention. Until there is a more credible official response, the lira will fall.